Natural Gas Inventory Expectation
Demand-based on total products supplied over the last 4-week period averaged 18.3 million barrels a day, down by 10.7% from the same period the previous year. Over the past 4 weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 7.6 million barrels a day, down by 19.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 7.9% from the same period the previous year. Jet fuel product provided was down 22.0% compared with the same 4-week period last year.
The Agency shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the information and its publication, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Wood Mackenzie analyst Robert Bickhart said that, in the past week, many Gulf Coast refineries “remained fully shut,” while others had only partially restarted. “A full return to pre-outage demand levels could take weeks more, especially as several of the larger facilities have reported widespread damage” from the Texas storm last month, he said Friday. Additionally, looking ahead to the next EIA report, TPH estimated a 6 Bcf/d week/week drop in residential/commercial demand on warmer weather.
The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 6¢/MMBtu, averaging $7.97/MMBtu for the week ending March 10. The price of ethane fell alongside with natural gas prices, declining 3%.
The Energy information Administration is scheduled to release its inventory report on Thursday. Expectations are for a 85 Bcf draw according to survey provider Estimize. U.S. natural gas consumption was lower in 2020 in all sectors except electric power. EIA forecasts that U.S. production of dry natural gas averaged 87.8 Bcf/d in February, which is down from 92.4 Bcf/d in December . For 2021, EIA expects that overall dry natural gas production will average 91.4 Bcf/d, which is 0.9 Bcf/d more than the February STEO forecast. The higher forecast largely reflects higher forecast crude oil prices, which EIA expects will contribute to more associated natural gas production. The United States ended October 2020 with more than 3.9 trillion cubic feet in working natural gas storage, 5% more than the 2015–19 average and the fourth-highest end-of-October level on record.
Natural gas price at the end 2.66, change for October -2.2%. Natural gas price at the end 2.72, change for September 5.0%. Natural gas price at the end 2.59, change for August -5.1%. Natural gas price at the end 2.73, change for July -4.9%.
Summary: What Is The Future Of The Natural Gas
Second, tax-advantaged renewable forms of energy, especially wind and solar, are gaining ground at the expense of natural gas, and only cheap prices can slow this trend. If you follow the blue line in the graphic above, it is evident that drillers have over-produced the last year or so beginning in late 2019, and driven storage volumes well above the 5-year average.
While the company’s low-cost, high-quality inventory should ensure long-term output growth, cash flows will also receive some downside protection from attractive hedges. Recent stocks from this report have soared up to +84.6% in just 1 month.
Natural Gas Etfs Burning Brightly
It is a sustainable fuel, and thus has an important role to play in the long term, and thus its demand will only get bigger. However, it is also a resource that is becoming easier to acquire thanks to new technologies and mining methods — so supply is also on the rise.
EIA estimates that inventory withdrawals were 829 billion cubic feet in February, the largest February withdrawal on record. The February 2021 withdrawal was significantly larger than the five-year (2016–20) average February withdrawal of 452 Bcf. The large February withdrawal has resulted in end-of-month storage levels falling lower than their five-year average. EIA forecasts that natural gas inventories will end March 2021 at 1.6 Tcf, which is 13% lower than the five-year average. EIA forecasts that natural gas inventories will ultimately end the 2021 injection season at almost 3.7 Tcf, which is 2% less than the five-year average. EIA expects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021, down 0.9% from 2020. The decline in U.S. natural gas consumption reflects less natural gas consumed for electric power generation because of higher natural gas prices compared with last year.
The natural gas price forecast today, and the natural gas price forecast for the next six months are expected to be very different as market issues play themselves out. Then, the gas price predictions next 5 years will also be interesting to watch because of the way in which the resource is being produced and handled. In the spot market, the prices are the supply at hand and demand at hand; if there is a shortage then prices can act erratically, as it is difficult to move extra supply from storage on such short notice. In comparison, the futures market is less volatile, mostly being determined by macroeconomic variables of seasonal supply and demand expectations.
Natural gas price at the end 2.28, change for December -5.0%. Natural gas price at the end 2.40, change for November 4.8%. Natural gas price at the end 2.29, change for October 0.9%. Natural gas price at the end 2.27, change for September 5.1%. Natural gas price at the end 2.16, change for August -4.8%. Natural gas price at the end 2.27, change for July -5.0%.
These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through January 4, 2021. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return.
Price Prediction (per Mmbtu), Forecast For Next Months And
The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 19% higher than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season . Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, congressional reports. The price of natural gas is mostly agreed to grow by three percent each year, and this could increase rapidly as traditional fossil fuels are left behind. Currently, the price of natural gas is quite low, which means a sudden rally could be expected this year, and it would be a good time to invest in the long run. Many expect gas to become the largest primary energy source by 2034. It will also be the last of the fossil fuels to experience peak demand, which is being predicted for 2035. But, because it can operate alongside the growing uses of sustainable energy, the next five years is sure to see steady growth in its demand.
Midwest prices decline by more than 20¢/MMBtu on average as temperatures in the region averaged up to 16ºF warmer-than-average for this week of the year. At the Chicago Citygate, the price decreased 23¢ from $2.76/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.53/MMBtu yesterday after reaching a weekly low of $2.43/MMBtu on Tuesday. At 63ºF, the average temperature in Chicago yesterday was 27ºF warmer than normal. Prices at Dawn in Ontario, a major natural gas storage hub for the Great Lakes region, decreased 25¢ from $2.75/MMBtu last Wednesday to its weekly low of $2.51/MMBtu yesterday. Throughout 2020, ethane prices were, on average, 83¢ per million British thermal units , or 43%, higher than dry natural gas, thus spurring higher rates of recovery.
Weekly Storage Report Out Today
The three largest users of natural gas are industrial, domestic and power generation. Of the three, the use of natural gas for power generation has risen the quickest. By getting to know who uses natural gas, investors can better gauge how demand affects pricing. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible. While the raging coronavirus pandemic continues to impact economic activity and, by extension, natural gas usage, there are stocks that could offer attractive returns. On the contrary, the future for natural gas is bright and assured well into the future. Natural gas is the pivot for global energy transition from to renewables.
With this in mind, investors should be armed with the information they need to make the proper investment decisions regarding natural gas investments. After the 65 Bcf build in the week ended August 7, natural gas inventories were ~22% higher than last year’s levels and 2.8% higher than the five-year average. Inventories have been outpacing the five-year average since the week ended May 29.
Natural Gas Inventory Injection Comes In Above Expectations
It becomes about balancing the supply and the demand, but the good thing is demand is rapidly rising. China accounts for more than 40 percent of growth in international natural gas demand, as it looks to move away from coal. Fusion Mediawould like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week. The oil price to natural gas ratio is a ratio in which the price of oil is the numerator and the price of natural gas is the denominator. These trades are based on the difference between natural gas and electricity pricing. Generally, the two trade together, but since they are determined using different mechanisms the prices can sometimes differ, with traders taking advantage of the volatility.
What exactly is the problem with natural gas that keeps prices in the basement? You can see in the EIA graphic below that we began the withdrawal season with nearly 4-TCF in storage, an all-time high. However, record high production in the United States and expectations for explosive growth through 2020 means that supply will keep pace with demand. Therefore, prices are likely to trade sideways but for weather-driven movements. Also, with the traditional withdrawal season having ended in March, consumption is likely to decline in the near term. The early onset of winter, together with the lowest level of stocks in 15 years, demand from power plants and growing LNG shipments lifted the commodity to almost $5 per MMBtu. But the euphoria didn’t last long as a mild weather led to smaller withdrawals that markedly reduced the storage deficit and sent prices lower.
According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 39 Bcf to 104 Bcf, with a median estimate of 67 Bcf. According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, March 2, the natural gas rig count remained flat at 92. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 1 to 310. The total rig count increased by 1, and it now stands at 403.
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Antero Resources is the third-largest U.S. gas producer and a leading operator in the Appalachian basin — the most-prolific domestic gas basin — with around 515,000 net acres. More than 65% of the company’s total output is natural gas.
One participant on Enelyst, the online chat hosted by The Desk, called it a “monster pull” and noted it likely preceded more to come in February. Receive the best-curated content by our editors for the week ahead. Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading.
- Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 7.9% from the same period the previous year.
- EIA forecasts that natural gas inventories will ultimately end the 2021 injection season at almost 3.7 Tcf, which is 2% less than the five-year average.
- “A full return to pre-outage demand levels could take weeks more, especially as several of the larger facilities have reported widespread damage” from the Texas storm last month, he said Friday.
It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market.
Weekly Natural Gas Storage