Nicholas Taleb Books
Still better is to make a fortune in the middle of the 1987 crash, the black Monday. the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or “incentives” for skill. so glad to not have devoured “fooled by randomness” in one sitting, and to be taking time to let its effects take hold as i go. There are common threads and interesting connections throughout them all but I can’t think of any single book that summarizes all the ideas. I would pick whichever one seems the most interesting.
it’s a great “filmed play,” a bit reminiscent of aaron sorkin when one thinks about it. anyway, i love it when things percolate through the brain. this was clearly the place to start, as the sometimes hermetic aphorisms refer to ideas that were developed here.
Nassim Talebs Recommended Books
First, I read it in the original French Le Rivage des Syrtes , not in this English translation, but I doubt that the translator can mess up such a fine style and the imagery. Second, the blurb says Gracq received the Goncourt prize for it. Julien Gracq REFUSED the Goncourt, he despised the Parisian literary circles and by 1951 decided to stay in the margin. He stuck to his publisher José Corti rather than switch to the fancy Gallimard after his success . Third, this book came out a few years after Buzzati’s “deserto”, but before Buzzati was translated into French.
This is the central document showing the heuristics that real-life traders use to manage their affairs, how people who do rather than talk have done things. There are 3 possible reasons you were unable to login and get access our premium online pages.
The countries that fared well are not a large segment of the initial cohort; randomness would be expected to allow a few investment classes to fare extremely well. I wonder if those “experts” who make foolish (and self-serving) statements like “markets will always go up in a any twenty-year period” are aware of this problem. Recall that someone with only casual knowledge about the problems of randomness would believe that an animal is at the maximum fitness for the conditions of its time. This is not what evolution means; on average, animals will be fit, but not every single one of them, and not at all times. Had Nero had to relive his professional life a few million times, very few sample paths would be marred by bad luck– but, owing to his conservatism, very few as well would be affected by extreme good luck. Black Swan events are largely caused by people using measures way over their heads, instilling false confidence based on bogus results. We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control, namely to randomness.
One of five business books Chris Dixon recommended on Twitter. Bootstrapped by a small team with a big passion for books.
Favobooks contains book recommendations of famous people. Book suggestion from outstanding entrepreneurs, great politicians, people you admire. Book lists from Barack Obama, Steve Jobs, Mark Cuban, Bill Gates and others. I do think the earlier ones were a little more pleasant to read because he indulges less in his annoying schtick where he ad hominems all the people who disagree with him. But in the later books his ideas are maybe a little more developed, or at least he has by now taken his earlier ideas and connected them to interesting new ones.
The idea of this article is to show you how the Taleb books can help you in your college life and the job market. If I had known the works of Taleb in my student days , I would certainly have avoided many mistakes and stumbling throughout my career. Start with his book of aphorisms to get an idea of his humour and how his brain works – then move on through the set as you please. They do sort of ‘go in order’ but can definitely be read as stand-alone books as well. I’ve read them all and would recommend sequential as later books do refer back to previous ideas. I’m a fan of reading books/ listening to anthologies sequentially as you can see the ideas form and change.
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It is more powerful than the Mafia or the military. It has global catastrophic effects and can be found anywhere from the world’s most powerful boardrooms to your local pub. This is the immensely powerful force of human stupidity. Taleb received numerous prizes and accolades and honory doctorates, but the only one he is really proud of is the Wolfram Award for Innovation, granted by Stephen Wolfram for his contributions to computational probability. Taleb has also been involved in risk-based policy making, advising various heads of states, U.S. agencies, and international organizations on model error and the detection and mitigation of tail exposures. He has also has testified twice for the United States Congress.
Taleb introduces his concept of antifragility, which explains that certain things benefit from a degree of randomness, chaos, and disorder. While comfort, convenience, and predictability, breed the opposite–fragility. He presents this as part of what he calls ‘the central triad’ which ranges from fragile to robust to antifragile. As he explains antifragility, he discusses the value systems that hold us prisoner, ancestral vs. modern life, and Seneca’s version of Stoicism. It’s a dense read, but worth it for a glimpse into the originality of Taleb’s ideas.
Likewise, it is not possible to hold a situation in one’s head without some element of bias. Overestimate the effects of both pleasant and unpleasant future events.
Modelling Extremal Events: For Insurance And Finance
By imitating, we get closer to others–that is, other imitators. Financial distress could be more demoralizing than war (just consider that financial problems and the accompanying humiliations can lead to suicide, but war doesn’t appear to do so directly). You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, the generator of history. An idea will survive the test of time not only if it does not harm, but also if it favors one’s survival.
On this page one can find links to the “Technical Incerto” which is an in-work textbook version of the series. I’m not qualified to review it , but appears more than good enough to share. The table of contents in the 1st volume indicates non-technical chapters for those allergic to math (there are also non-technical sections in vol2 but you’ll need to skim to find them).
- Many gene therapies for hemophilia A and B are being studied in people to determine if they are safe and effective.
- I do not see a “tree”; I see a pleasant or an ugly tree.
- Taleb has also been involved in risk-based policy making, advising various heads of states, U.S. agencies, and international organizations on model error and the detection and mitigation of tail exposures.
- The most painful moments are not those we spend with uninteresting people; rather, they are those spent with uninteresting people trying hard to be interesting.
Taleb has held several senior positions at CSFB, UBS, BNP Paribas and Bankers Trust. Our dear friend Taleb was so effective that at age 28 he got financial freedom to be able to retire. It’s worth remembering that he did this feat there in the late 1990s without help from the internet, YouTube and Google Translate. i might take a little detour before starting black swan. don’t want to blur it all into an indistinguishable porrige.
This idea of people living longer when they exert control over their lives has not spread yet. That people lead longer lives when they trust their neighbors and feel part of a community is far reaching. Just think of the implications on social justice etc. Also think that everything you learn on human preferences and well-being in both economics and medicine is either incomplete or bogus . Other quant books do not have such notions as “pricing kernel” and economic theoretical matters. I would recommend it as a necessary piece of the “quant” toolkit. Every quant should have it as a background tool as the usual quant literature is standalone and devoid of these concepts.
The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable (incerto)
Yet it mysteriously opened at #2 on the NYT bestsellers list. Mastering the best of what other people have already figured out. The book in short provides an excellent perspective on the statistical approach to asset price dynamics. We are more resilient than we think (“immune neglect”). The book also discusses the reversion to baseline happiness after what we thought would bring a permanent improvement in our moods .
I kept waiting for him to use simulations or even plots to see how the equations worked. But he did not … he and Mouhot had recourse to outside help for the graphs and he camly noted that they “looked” great. Later in the book he relied on others to do the numerical work… as an afterthought. Most physicists, quants, and applied mathematicians would have played with a computer to get the intuition; Villani just worked with mathematical objects, abstract mathematical objects, and very abstract at that.
There are Arabic influences, but the distance between the spoken language and, say, Bar Hebraeus is quite narrow. ThriftBooks sells millions of used books at the lowest everyday prices. We personally assess every book’s quality and offer rare, out-of-print treasures. We deliver the joy of reading in 100% recyclable packaging with free standard shipping on US orders over $10.
The thinkers range from ancient Roman poet Terentius to physicist Einstein to VC Charlie Munger of Berkshire-Hathaway investments. Since the philosophy is meant to be practically applied in areas of thinking and judgment, especially in boardrooms by leaders of companies, this book has less of the academic feeling that accompanies most philosophical works. Well, those are the 5 reasons every student knows the Taleb books. Taleb works “only” as a writer, statistician and risk analyst. If having one career is already very laborious, imagine having several. In addition, he divides his life routines in the United States, United Kingdom and Lebanon, acts as a professor and is president of the Empirica investment fund. We know that the life of professionals in the US happens in hard mode.
When I started on Wall Street in the 1980s, trading rooms were populated with people with a “business orientation,” that is, generally devoid of any introspection, flat as a pancake, and likely to be fooled by randomness. Their failure rate was extremely high, particularly when financial instruments gained in complexity. True to form, Taleb challenges standard conventions and long-held beliefs about a range of topics including uncertainty, symmetry, risk sharing, and rationality in complex systems.
A deep understanding of measure theory is not necessary for scientific and engineering applications; it is not necessary for those who do not want to work on theorems and technical proofs. Method 2 is much, much, much more scientific in the true sense of the word, that is rigorous and applicable.
They are human; they are marred by the biases humans have. There are routes to success that are nonrandom, but few, very few people have the mental stamina to follow them. Because the notion of independence (i.e., when the next draw does depend on past outcomes) is violated. Independence is a requirement for working with the math of probability.